Publications

Putin bombed Ukraine in response to the first official trip of the US special envoy to Moscow. To Moscow, not to Kyiv. This is a Russian special operation to outplay the Donald Trump administration. I wrote about this in an article for the Atlantic Council after Trump's inauguration and in the recent reports by the Kyiv Security Forum.Bringing back an American prisoner is something that is important to the US president.I welcome the fact that an American citizen was brought back home, and wish every single Ukrainian would be brought back home from the Russian captivity.A war criminal Putin received Trump's public endorsement in front of the entire world and a confirmation that the Kremlin’s approach is right: to wait out, to outsmart, and to eventually win the most important thing for him - the war with Ukraine. And his victory would mean the loss of the entire West.Incredible efforts are needed from the European Union, the G7, and Ukraine during the visit of the American delegation to Kyiv, during the Ramstein meeting, and the Munich Security Conference to prevent a new Munich Agreement. It would have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the entire world.There is no other way than securing military and financial assistance to Ukraine, security guarantees, sanctions against Russia and those who support it, that will deprive Russia of oil and gas revenues.Arseniy Yatsenyuk - Head of the Kyiv Security Forum, Prime Minister of Ukraine from 2014 to 2016.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk warns that Putin's victory would threaten the entire West and calls for concerted efforts to prevent a new Munich Agreement, which could have disastrous consequences for global security.

The EU, G7, and Ukraine need incredible efforts to prevent a new Munich conspiracy – Arseniy Yatsenyuk

A few years ago, against the backdrop of a national pro-democracy uprising in Belarus, I called on European leaders to develop a clear strategy for Eastern Europe. This envisaged EU and NATO membership for Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and a free Belarus. Alas, many European politicians preferred to wait and see.It is admittedly difficult to make historic political decisions, but the price of not doing so is often horrendously high. In this case, the price is obvious: By failing to integrate Ukraine and bring the countries of Eastern Europe out of the geopolitical grey zone, Western leaders set the stage for the full-scale Russian invasion of 2022.Further mistakes will be just as costly. Thankfully, there is now a growing consensus throughout the West that only Ukrainian victory can end the global security crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion. Nevertheless, there is still a need for greater clarity on what would constitute victory and how Europe can achieve a lasting peace. &nbsp;Defeating Russia and securing peace will require a series of interrelated measures that go far beyond the battlefield. I have identified five key elements to a sustainable settlement that will end the current carnage and prevent any repetitions in the years ahead.The first element is arming Ukraine sufficiently for victory. This process is well underway, but serious issues remain in terms of both quantities and timing. Every single delay in military aid costs Ukrainian lives and emboldens Russia. Ukraine’s Western partners must overcome their misplaced fear of provoking Putin and should instead seek to streamline the delivery of weapons. After all, it is now widely recognized that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield. &nbsp;The second element is the strategic deterrence of Russia and creation of a new NATO-centered security architecture in Europe. There should now be no illusions: NATO alone can provide Europe with a credible and efficient security system. This means NATO membership for Ukraine. Nothing less will force Moscow to retreat. The upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius should conclude by inviting Ukraine to join the alliance. No bilateral guarantees or other compromise measures can hope to replace NATO’s Article Five or stop Russia.The third element is Ukrainian membership of the European Union and restoration of the Ukrainian economy in close unison with the wider European economy. There has been significant progress toward this objective since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion, but overall results remain disappointing and fall far short of the many political statements on the importance of Ukraine’s European integration.The fourth key task is undermining Russia’s potential to act aggressively. It is hard to assess how long Russia will remain capable of waging the current war, but financial issues will play an important role in any decision-making process. Last year, official Russian military expenditure amounted to approximately $85 billion. This year, the figure is set to reach at least $108 billion. Unofficially, the total sum spent on the war is likely to be far higher. Clearly, sanctions must continue and need to intensify. Additional steps could include the prevention of dual-purpose goods transit through Russia and the maximum implementation of secondary sanctions.In parallel, it is also vital to protect and strengthen Ukraine’s economy. Further measures are necessary to facilitate Ukrainian exports. NATO-led naval convoys should break Russia’s Black Sea blockade and enable Ukraine to resume international exports throughout the country’s southern ports. Ukraine’s external debt should undergo restructuring.The fifth element necessary for a sustainable peace in Eastern Europe is perhaps the most important and at the same time the most intangible. Genuine victory will only be possible when Russian imperialism is no longer a threat to the region.Once Ukraine is liberated and secure under the collective umbrella of NATO membership, the top priority for the international community will be addressing the imperial ideology that encourages Russians to commit acts of international aggression with impunity and contempt for human life. Russia must bear full legal and financial responsibility for its aggression against Ukraine and for the genocide of the Ukrainian nation. The era of Russian impunity for war crimes must end. &nbsp;Unless the underlying issue of Russian imperialism is addressed at the international level, the liberation of Ukraine will provide little more than temporary relief. Confronting Russia’s imperial identity is the only way to achieve a lasting peace. This would pave the way for a new global security system and the much-needed reform of international bodies such as the UN Security Council. World peace will remain elusive until Russian imperialism is consigned to the dustbin of history.Arseniy Yatsenyuk is Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum and former Prime Minister of Ukraine (2014-16). Article for <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/five-steps-toward-ukrainian-victory-and-a-lasting-peace-with-russia/">Atlantic Council</a>.

A few years ago, against the backdrop of a national pro-democracy uprising in Belarus, I called on European leaders to develop a clear strategy for Eastern Europe. 

Arseniy YATSENYUK

Five steps toward Ukrainian victory

This will be a long fight. For the 10th year in a row we commemorate the reinstated Ukrainian Independence being at war, fighting for each next consecutive year of our freedom and the very existence of Ukraine and our people.

Ten Talking Points From a Realist

The key issue of the war by russia against Ukraine and the entire civilized world is how this war is to end or, to be precise, how the victory of Ukraine and its allies should look like. Everyone knows what to do with Ukraine after its victory – to rebuild it and integrate it into NATO and EU. But strategic uncertainty about the future of russia lingers on precluding more decisive steps by the international community.Indiscriminate mass murders by russian soldiers of the Ukrainian population in occupied territories, daily missile shelling of civilian infrastructure as an established military modus operandi, as well as overwhelming support by the russian populace of this war makes it obvious that it will be impossible to integrate russia into Europe as a democratic nation any time soon. Their system of values is incompatible with ours. Russians have been hating the West for centuries, so it will take at least several decades before we can speak of any integration with the democratic world. So, our modus vivendi with post-war Russia has to be co-existence. For the foreseeable future russia cannot be part of a pan-European security architecture.Next, many friends of Ukraine argue that, in the end, we must weaken russia so much that it will not be able to attack any of its neighbors ever again. What does it mean in practical terms? The answer is quite obvious: russia must be deprived of all of its weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical and biological. An aggressor has no right to possess this kind of weapons. Only then can Ukraine and other potential victims be really safe. Demilitarized Russia will never dare attacking others, because it will be swiftly defeated by collective efforts of international community. So, after Ukraine wins on the battlefield and restores its territorial integrity in the borders of 1991, the sanctions against the russian federation must be preserved and linked to its total and complete demilitarization. Regardless of the name of a future russian leader and its political regime.This idea is fully in line with the Ukrainian peace plan, namely its point #9, because this is the only “waterproof” way to avert any future aggression by moscow.A nuclear-free russia is a good idea for USA and China too, so the two major superpowers can have an important task together putting aside their rivalry for some time. After that all other countries will promptly follow suit strengthening global isolation of the rogue state. Denuclearization of russia will also lead to a dramatic reduction of nuclear stockpiles by Washington and, partially, maybe even by Beijing, because they will have no use for so many of them any longer. So that will make the whole world a better and safer place to live.In order to make true the above scenario, we need to answer two main questions:First, how to deter Russia from the nuclear option now (either using tactical nukes or blowing up a nuclear power station)? The only effective leverage is a threat to personal lives of president putin and his closest cronies. As putin truthfully said to general Jim Mattis, the russian rulers don’t care about other human lives, nor losing part of their army, nor sanctions, because their TV mouthpieces can explain away anything. But they do care very much about their own lives. They just pretend to be crazy so we shall be afraid to punish them. Besides, this threat must be made not by William Burns or Jake Sullivan in private talks with their counterparts, but publicly by president Joseph Biden. He used to call putin a killer, so a killer must be swiftly neutralized if he goes berserk with nuclear. If such a threat is not credible, nothing will stop putin from attacking any NATO member tomorrow. If, however, such a threat is credible, the West can stop worrying about escalation and provide Ukraine with all the weapons right away. Kremlin will not dare reply with nuclear.Second, how to achieve disarmament of Russia after its defeat on the conventional battlefield? Well, its political, security and business leaders still have funds and property abroad; and their families love to travel to pleasant sunny destinations. When all of those fruits will be denied to them, and the internal struggle and mass impoverishment of the russians will dramatically increase, those leaders will face a choice:Either they will be confronted with major upheavals at home – “senseless and ruthless”, as always, or they give up WMDs in exchange for personal safety abroad and some property and cash retainers. Of course, the war criminals will be punished by international prosecution.So, the international community will reach out a helping hand and arrange a deal. The irony is that Ukraine may find itself to be one of the signatories under a document that will provide the russian federation with the assurances of its security, sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for its WMDs. &nbsp;The alternative to this scenario will be permanent wars by the russian empire with its neighbors, both non-NATO and NATO, every 10 to 15 years, and no security guarantees by NATO will stop this. That will mean permanent need for huge investments into the military and fossil fuels. And that in the face of disastrous climate change. We have no time to waste. The time is ripe to finish with the russian empire once and for all. The future generations of the russian people will be very grateful for that. And the entire world will sigh with enormous relief seeing how many global problems miraculously disappear.Oleksandr Aleksandrovych, Ambassador-at-large, former Head of International Security Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine &nbsp;

The key issue of the war by russia against Ukraine and the entire civilized world is how this war is to end or, to be precise, how the victory of Ukraine and its allies should look like. 

The best guarantee against future russian aggression

“Russia’s assets should be transferred to Ukraine”Appeal to world leaders and governmentsRussia’s war against Ukraine is genocidal.It aims to destroy Ukraine – its statehood, its people, its economy, and its future. Moscow has been harboring this intention for a long time and has been accumulating massive resources for this purpose for many years, including the resources it has concentrated overseas.By committing an audacious and unprovoked act of aggression against a sovereign state, the aggressor attacked the major principles of the civilized world order enshrined in the UN Charter and fundamental international documents.Russia has deliberately become an outlaw. This state must bear liability for all the crimes it has committed in Ukraine, not witnessed in Europe since the Second World War, and compensate the losses and damages.As of today, the total volume of frozen sovereign Russian assets amounts to approximately EUR 300 billion. This includes some EUR 200 billion in the European Union.We call on the leaders of the Group of Seven and the European Union to approve the long-awaited decision to let Ukraine use Russian sovereign assets and funnel them to compensate damages caused and inflicted upon Ukraine and Ukrainians.On 14 November 2022, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the resolution for “Furtherance of remedy and reparation for aggression against Ukraine” and recognized that the Russian Federation must be held to account for any violations of international law in or against Ukraine, including its aggression in violation of the Charter of the United Nations, as well as any violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law, and that it must bear the legal consequences of all of its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for the injury, including any damage, caused by such acts. The UNGA decision along with other international acts, condemning Russia’s aggression, proved to be a critical underlying legal basis for bringing the Russian aggressor to justice and ensuring it makes reparations for damage.The usage of Russian sovereign assets should be considered a collective countermeasure. The UN International Law Commission on State Liability has codified the relevant norms of such actions.Meanwhile, the aggressor feels its impunity. Abusing its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia considers itself immune from international law and justice. The subsequent transfer of the Russian assets to Ukraine is one of the mandatory steps to ensure the aggressor feels the burden of international liability. It will also be a valuable lesson to other regimes attempting to undermine international law and order.As a result of its own actions, the damages caused by Russia should be compensated primarily at Russia’s expense. Taxpayers in Western countries will welcome the decision to utilize Russian assets for the needs of Ukraine, thus lessening the burden on their respective national budgets.Ukraine and Ukrainians, as direct victims of Russian aggression, are entitled to be fully compensated by Russia for the damage it inflicted upon them. Until Russia brings itself into compliance with international law and compensates Ukraine and Ukrainians fully by way of legally binding reparations, Ukraine and Ukrainians should become the recipients of Russian sovereign assets.We call on world leaders to take several important steps.It is necessary to form an open register of frozen sovereign Russian assets, indicating their amounts, types of assets, their location, current state of use and revenues thereon. It is necessary to disclose terms and conditions of current utilization of all frozen sovereign assets of the Russian Federation.Until the final decision on transfer is made, the revenues stemming from the use of Russia’s frozen assets must be directed to Ukraine and Ukrainians. We welcome the recent decision of the Belgium Government to use the tax revenue from frozen Russian assets in Ukraine’s interests. However, further actions are needed in the European Union and the United States to find a proper solution.In June 2023, the Bill “Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act” was introduced in the United States Congress. Its legal mechanisms empower the U.S. President to utilize sovereign assets of the Russian Federation. Enactment of this Bill will provide the United States Government with additional tools to take action.Respective actions, including necessary legislative decisions, should be taken by the European Union and its member states to ensure the solution of this critical demand.The Russian sovereign assets should be contributed to a special Ukraine Recovery Fund managed by the representatives of G7 nations, in consultation with the Government of Ukraine. According to World Bank estimates, in February 2023 the cost of recovery in Ukraine has already reached USD 411 billion. This number grows day after day. The Russian sovereign assets of EUR 300 billion fail to compensate the whole measure of losses yet will become a significant contribution to the cause of saving and rebuilding a democratic, resilient, European Ukraine.The time has come to cast aside doubts and unsubstantiated concerns.The time has come to make a fundamental decision—a decision that is crucial for the victory and rebuilding of Ukraine.Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum, Prime Minister of Ukraine in 2014-16Lawrence H. Summers, President Emeritus of Harvard University, the United States Secretary of the Treasury in 1999-2001Amb. Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank in 2007-12, United States Deputy Secretary of State in 2005-06, United States Trade Representative in 2001-05Philip Zelikow, Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, Counselor of the United States Department of State in 2005-07Andrius Kubilius, Prime Minister of Lithuania in 1999-2000 and 2008-12, Member of the European Parliament, Co-chair of the EuronestTaavi Rõivas, Prime Minister of Estonia in 2014-16Nathalie Loiseau, Minister of France for European Affairs in 2017-19, Member of the European ParliamentMichael Gahler, Member of the European ParliamentAmb. Christoph Heusgen, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Permanent Representative of Germany to the United Nations in 2017-21Amb. John Herbst, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, the United States Ambassador to Ukraine in 2003-06Danylo Lubkivsky, Director of the Kyiv Security Forum, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine in 2014Dr. Francis Fukuyama, Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International StudiesGarry Kasparov, Chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative (RDI), Chairman of the Human Rights Foundation (HRF)Amb. Paula Dobriansky, the United States Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs in 2001-09Amb. Alexander Vershbow, Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council, NATO Deputy Secretary General in 2012-16, the United States Ambassador to South Korea in 2005-08 and the United States Ambassador to Russia in 2001-05Amb. Daniel Fried, the United States Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs in 2005-09, the State Department Coordinator for Sanctions Policy in 2013-17 and the United States Ambassador to Poland in 1997-2000Amb. Eric Edelman, the United States Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in 2005-09, the United States Ambassador to Turkey in 2003-05 and the United States Ambassador to Finland in 1998-2001Amb. Michael McFaul, Director at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, the United States Ambassador to Russia in 2012-14David Kramer, Executive Director at the George W. Bush Institute, the United States Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor in 2008-09Dr. Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director of the McCain Institute, the United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia in 2012-15Tom Malinowski, Senior Fellow at the McCain Institute, United States Congressman in 2019-23Amb. Douglas Lute, the United States Ambassador to NATO in 2013-17Amb. Marie Yovanovitch, the United States Ambassador to Ukraine in 2016-19Amb. William B. Taylor, Vice President of the United States Institute for Peace, the United States Ambassador to Ukraine in 2006-09Amb. Carlos Pascual, the United States Ambassador to Ukraine in 2000-03Amb. Steven Pifer, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, the United States Ambassador to Ukraine in 1998-2000Amb. Stephen Sestanovich, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Professor at Columbia University, the United States Ambassador-at-Large for the former Soviet Union in 1997-2001Amb. Richard Morningstar, Founding Chairman of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, the United States Ambassador to Azerbaijan in 2012-14 and the United States Ambassador to the European Union in 1999-2001Amb. P. Michael McKinley, the United States Ambassador to Brazil in 2017-18, the United States Ambassador to Afghanistan in 2015-16, the United States Ambassador to Colombia in 2010-13 and the United States Ambassador to Peru in 2007-10Franklin Kramer, Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Distinguished Fellow and Board Director at the Atlantic CouncilLaurence H. Tribe, Carl M. Loeb University Professor Emeritus at Harvard UniversitySteven Tian, Research Director at Yale Chief Executive Leadership InstituteDr. Anders Åslund, Former Advisor to the President of Ukraine in 1994-97Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Lester Crown Professor of Leadership Practice at Yale School of Management* Institutional affiliation listed for identification purposes only. &nbsp;

As of today, the total volume of frozen sovereign Russian assets amounts to approximately EUR 300 billion. This includes some EUR 200 billion in the European Union.

“Russia’s assets should be transferred to Ukraine”. Appeal to world leaders and governments

Speech by the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer&nbsp;Kyiv Security Forum, 21 March 2024Mr Yatsenyuk, dear Arseniy,Your Excellencies,&nbsp;Dear Ukrainian friends and colleagues,After these inspiring words from the NATO Secretary General, it is my distinct honour to address you here in Kyiv.I am grateful for the opportunity to travel to Ukraine in person and to meet with your political and military leadership.It allows me to express my deep respect for the courage and strength you have displayed, both on and off the battlefield.My visit - the first NATO military delegation to visit Ukraine since the large-scale invasion ─ is testament to the fact that NATO and Ukraine are closer than they have ever been.With every day that passes, we become closer.More interoperable.More intertwined.Together, we are putting everything into place to make Ukraine a member of our Alliance.The Swedish flag will not be the only blue and yellow flag at the NATO headquarters.Why?Because we all believe in the power of democracy.That is what is at stake here.Russia’s war against Ukraine has never been about any real security threat coming from either Ukraine or NATO.This war is about president putin fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth: democracy.If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights… real democratic rights… then people in Russia will soon crave them too.That is what this war is actually about.In 2024 more than 2 billion people on earth will cast their vote in a democratic election… and yet the concept of democracy needs to be defended more than ever.Real democracy is about choice.It is about making sure that those in power are held accountable.And about having the freedom to determine the direction you think your country should take.Real democracy can only exist under the rule of law that applies to all.In Russia… there is no choice, only force.And the rule of law is a façade.A piece of theatre the leadership put on, to fool people into thinking they were playing along.With the illegal annexation of Crimea, they already showed their blatant disregard for the rules-based international order.And then, on the 24th of February 2022, the Russian leadership fully pulled down their mask and showed the world who they really are.Russia is desperately attempting to portray an image of strength.And yet, they have displayed only weakness.There is no amount of propaganda that can cover up the coffins that fly back to the Russian Federation.There is no amount of propaganda that can answer the questions of the families of the deceased soldiers.And there is no amount of propaganda that can conceal the truth that president putin has not achieved any of his strategic objectives.And how can he?The Russian forces have no idea what they are fighting for…You do.You are fighting for civilization itself.The Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing this in a way we have never seen before.You have fundamentally changed many aspects of modern warfare.Confronted with a combination of World War One trenches and artillery barrages and 21st century drone warfare and artificial intelligence, you have quickly adapted and fought back.You are pioneering with innovation, using combinations of Soviet style equipment with modern Western materiel.Ladies and Gentlemen,Ukraine has suffered unimaginable sufferings.Has endured the unendurable.Has lost people and things that can never be replaced.And yet… to describe you as a victim would not do justice to your immeasurable strength.It would not do justice to the successes you have achieved on the battlefield.To the historic resilience your whole society has shown.Despite all its sufferings, despite all the destruction, Ukraine remains a sovereign state.You are incredibly strong.The world sees it.Russia knows it.This is by no means an easy fight. You don’t need me to tell you that.But while the world may have been overly optimistic in 2023, we should not make the same mistake by becoming overly pessimistic in 2024.Pessimists don’t win wars.&nbsp;And if you look at the facts: there is every reason to be confident in Ukraine’s ability to achieve success.The only thing you need… is our help.NATO Allies, and many other nations around the world, are providing unprecedented support to Ukraine and it has made a real difference.But Ukraine needs even more support.And you need it now.Time in Ukraine is not measured in days, weeks or months.It is measured in human lives.In Allied nations, a week is a week.In Ukraine, a week is a mother…father…child…friend…lover… lost forever.&nbsp;Just as the Secretary General has said: all Allies need to dig deep and deliver quickly.At the Munich Security Conference, President Zelenskyy rightly told the audience: “Don’t ask Ukraine when the war will end, ask yourself why putin is able to continue it.”It would be a grave, historic mistake to allow president putin to prevail.This would be dangerous for us all.Because the outcome of this war will shape the fate of the world.Ladies and Gentlemen,Today is the 756th day of what the Russian leadership thought would be a 3-day war.I will never be able to comprehend how heavy each of those days has felt.In the darkness of war, you are a beacon of light that shows the world what it means to fight for what you believe in.You have done so in the Revolution of Dignity.And you continue to do so in this brutal war of aggression.Your strength and resilience - your мужність [moojnist’] - have astounded the world.You are proving that democracy is worth fighting for.It is not a perfect system.Nor is it self-sustainable. Even in countries where it has existed for centuries.But it is worth risking your life for.Because without choice, without freedom, what is there?How can we ever build a safe, prosperous world for our children in a system of brutal tyranny?In Russia we see a regime that murders their opponents…oppresses its citizens…uses their own soldiers as cannon fodder, not bothering to pick up the corpses…and kidnaps Ukrainian children to force them to fight against their own people…Compare that to the Ukrainian leadership, that is not only bravely resisting aggression, but at the same time is doing everything they can to eliminate corruption and strengthen their democratic institutions.A legitimate government, that demonstrates grace under unimaginable pressure.That cares deeply about each human life.That is willing to put the long-term interest of the country before any short-term personal or political interest.A government that chooses the “we” over the “me”.Thát is inspirational leadershipThát is what strength looks like.Thát is what democracy is about.Ladies and Gentlemen,President putin made two strategic mistakes: he underestimated Ukraine’s determination and he underestimated NATO’s unity.With our help, Ukraine can and will prevail.From the bottom of my heart, I say:Ви не самі. &nbsp;[vwuè nè sami]You are not alone.NATO stands with you.Democracy will triumph over autocracy.Freedom will triumph over oppression.Light will triumph over darkness.Slava Ukraini.

Speech by the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer on the KSF.

"The Swedish flag will not be the only blue and yellow flag at the NATO headquarters"

Special Address to the Kyiv Security Forum Mark RUTTE, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of the Netherlands March 21, 2024Ladies and gentlemen,When I’m asked why it’s so important for the Netherlands and the West to keep supporting Ukraine, my answer is always the same: This is a time to ask ourselves what freedom – true freedom – is worth to us. Not just financially, but also in terms of our military, moral and political support.Three weeks ago I visited the battered city of Kharkiv. The people there know the answer to that question. Because for them, the fight for freedom is reality. It’s the harsh reality for all Ukrainians.And so they know that freedom is worth everything. They know it’s not something to compromise on. They know that freedom is worth fighting for.For over two years now, the courage, resilience and resolve of Ukraine’s soldiers and civilians have commanded our respect and admiration.In Kharkiv I met with schoolchildren and their teachers. They are making the best of every day, even as the brutal Russian attacks continue. Meeting them was moving and inspiring, and I have nothing but respect for their fortitude.And with that in mind, my message today remains that the Netherlands will continue to stand with Ukraine. As I’ve said on many occasions, we will do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes.That’s why, for example, the Netherlands signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine during my last visit on the 1st of March. To show that we will stay committed.To send a clear message to Kyiv, our international partners and Moscow that we will not falter.Of course, that means we must translate our words into action. And that’s exactly what we’re doing.This year the Netherlands is contributing another two billion euros in military support. That funding includes 250 million euros for the Czech Republic’s initiative to purchase artillery shells.It won’t be our last contribution, either.And of course, we are also working hard to get 24 Dutch F-16s flying in the skies over Ukraine as soon as possible.Last but not least, there’s the question of accountability and restoring justice once the war is over.A crucial part of President Zelenskyy’s peace formula. Because there can be no peace without justice.In a few weeks’ time, on the 2nd of April, the Netherlands will co-host the Restoring Justice for Ukraine Conference in The Hague. Its goal is to take stock of the progress so far and determine what needs to be done next.For us in the Netherlands, accountability is an issue close to our hearts. After all, my hometown of The Hague is the international city of peace and justice.Ladies and gentlemen, I hope the Kyiv Security Forum will underline the only possible answer to the central question of what freedom is worth to us:It’s worth everything!Thank you. &nbsp;

Special Address to the KSF Mark RUTTE, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

Mark Rutte: we are working hard to get 24 Dutch F-16s flying in the skies over Ukraine as soon as possible

Speech by the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer&nbsp;Kyiv Security Forum, 21 March 2024<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2s5gi-hbdxQ?start=872" width="800" height="450" frameborder="0"></iframe>Mr Yatsenyuk, dear Arseniy,Your Excellencies,&nbsp;Dear Ukrainian friends and colleagues,After these inspiring words from the NATO Secretary General, it is my distinct honour to address you here in Kyiv.I am grateful for the opportunity to travel to Ukraine in person and to meet with your political and military leadership.It allows me to express my deep respect for the courage and strength you have displayed, both on and off the battlefield.My visit - the first NATO military delegation to visit Ukraine since the large-scale invasion ─ is testament to the fact that NATO and Ukraine are closer than they have ever been.With every day that passes, we become closer.More interoperable.More intertwined.Together, we are putting everything into place to make Ukraine a member of our Alliance.The Swedish flag will not be the only blue and yellow flag at the NATO headquarters.Why?Because we all believe in the power of democracy.That is what is at stake here.Russia’s war against Ukraine has never been about any real security threat coming from either Ukraine or NATO.This war is about president putin fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth: democracy.If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights… real democratic rights… then people in Russia will soon crave them too.That is what this war is actually about.In 2024 more than 2 billion people on earth will cast their vote in a democratic election… and yet the concept of democracy needs to be defended more than ever.Real democracy is about choice.It is about making sure that those in power are held accountable.And about having the freedom to determine the direction you think your country should take.Real democracy can only exist under the rule of law that applies to all.In Russia… there is no choice, only force.And the rule of law is a façade.A piece of theatre the leadership put on, to fool people into thinking they were playing along.With the illegal annexation of Crimea, they already showed their blatant disregard for the rules-based international order.And then, on the 24th of February 2022, the Russian leadership fully pulled down their mask and showed the world who they really are.Russia is desperately attempting to portray an image of strength.And yet, they have displayed only weakness.There is no amount of propaganda that can cover up the coffins that fly back to the Russian Federation.There is no amount of propaganda that can answer the questions of the families of the deceased soldiers.And there is no amount of propaganda that can conceal the truth that president putin has not achieved any of his strategic objectives.And how can he?The Russian forces have no idea what they are fighting for…You do.You are fighting for civilization itself.The Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing this in a way we have never seen before.You have fundamentally changed many aspects of modern warfare.Confronted with a combination of World War One trenches and artillery barrages and 21st century drone warfare and artificial intelligence, you have quickly adapted and fought back.You are pioneering with innovation, using combinations of Soviet style equipment with modern Western materiel.Ladies and Gentlemen,Ukraine has suffered unimaginable sufferings.Has endured the unendurable.Has lost people and things that can never be replaced.And yet… to describe you as a victim would not do justice to your immeasurable strength.It would not do justice to the successes you have achieved on the battlefield.To the historic resilience your whole society has shown.Despite all its sufferings, despite all the destruction, Ukraine remains a sovereign state.You are incredibly strong.The world sees it.Russia knows it.This is by no means an easy fight. You don’t need me to tell you that.But while the world may have been overly optimistic in 2023, we should not make the same mistake by becoming overly pessimistic in 2024.Pessimists don’t win wars.&nbsp;And if you look at the facts: there is every reason to be confident in Ukraine’s ability to achieve success.The only thing you need… is our help.NATO Allies, and many other nations around the world, are providing unprecedented support to Ukraine and it has made a real difference.But Ukraine needs even more support.And you need it now.Time in Ukraine is not measured in days, weeks or months.It is measured in human lives.In Allied nations, a week is a week.In Ukraine, a week is a mother…father…child…friend…lover… lost forever.&nbsp;Just as the Secretary General has said: all Allies need to dig deep and deliver quickly.At the Munich Security Conference, President Zelenskyy rightly told the audience: “Don’t ask Ukraine when the war will end, ask yourself why putin is able to continue it.”It would be a grave, historic mistake to allow president putin to prevail.This would be dangerous for us all.Because the outcome of this war will shape the fate of the world.Ladies and Gentlemen,Today is the 756th day of what the Russian leadership thought would be a 3-day war.I will never be able to comprehend how heavy each of those days has felt.In the darkness of war, you are a beacon of light that shows the world what it means to fight for what you believe in.You have done so in the Revolution of Dignity.And you continue to do so in this brutal war of aggression.Your strength and resilience - your мужність [moojnist’] - have astounded the world.You are proving that democracy is worth fighting for.It is not a perfect system.Nor is it self-sustainable. Even in countries where it has existed for centuries.But it is worth risking your life for.Because without choice, without freedom, what is there?How can we ever build a safe, prosperous world for our children in a system of brutal tyranny?In Russia we see a regime that murders their opponents…oppresses its citizens…uses their own soldiers as cannon fodder, not bothering to pick up the corpses…and kidnaps Ukrainian children to force them to fight against their own people…Compare that to the Ukrainian leadership, that is not only bravely resisting aggression, but at the same time is doing everything they can to eliminate corruption and strengthen their democratic institutions.A legitimate government, that demonstrates grace under unimaginable pressure.That cares deeply about each human life.That is willing to put the long-term interest of the country before any short-term personal or political interest.A government that chooses the “we” over the “me”.Thát is inspirational leadershipThát is what strength looks like.Thát is what democracy is about.Ladies and Gentlemen,President putin made two strategic mistakes: he underestimated Ukraine’s determination and he underestimated NATO’s unity.With our help, Ukraine can and will prevail.From the bottom of my heart, I say:Ви не самі. &nbsp;[vwuè nè sami]You are not alone.NATO stands with you.Democracy will triumph over autocracy.Freedom will triumph over oppression.Light will triumph over darkness.Slava Ukraini.

Special Address to the Kyiv Security Forum&nbsp; Jens Stoltenberg,&nbsp; NATO Secretary General&nbsp; March 21, 2024Greetings from Brussels and many thanks to Mr. Yatsenyuk, dear Arseniy, for inviting me to speak at this year’s Kyiv Security Forum.Gatherings like this are truly valuable. They symbolize the strength of democracies, we can express our views frankly and openly, and we can cooperate to chart a better future.So, I want to congratulate you and your team for organizing this Forum even in these difficult times.Russia’s war against your country rages on. The toll this is taking on Ukraine, on your citizens and your cities, your infrastructure and your industry is significant.But you must not be discouraged. You have inflicted heavy losses on the Russian forces. You have successfully pushed back the Russian Black Sea fleet, opening a corridor to export grain and other products.And two years after a full-scale invasion your country remains free and independent.That is precisely what Putin wanted to take away from you: to deny you your sovereignty and he failed. &nbsp;He underestimated your courage, creativity and determination.He also underestimated the strength and unity of the NATO Alliance and our commitment to supporting you.NATO Allies have provided more than 99 % of military aid to Ukraine worth tens of billions of dollars, and more in on the way.Putin also wanted to deny Ukraine the right to choose its own pat and to distance your from your Euro-Atlantic family. But he has achieved the exact opposite. &nbsp; &nbsp;Ukraine is now a European Union candidate country and you are closer to NATO as ever before.I know that Ukraine is paying a high price for this choice, but your determination to continue on this path is truly an inspiration. &nbsp;We stand with you. And we will continue to do all we can to support you along the way.Together we will open a Joint Analysis, Training and Education Center in Poland. And in addition to supporting your immediate needs NATO will be working with Ukraine to contribute to your long-term success.We are strengthening our political ties through the NATO-Ukraine Council where we consult and make decisions together. And we are helping to make your forces and equipment more interoperable with NATO Allies, in preparation for the day that Ukraine joins the Alliance.It is not the question of “if”, but of “when”. As you continue on your path toward Euro-Atlantic integration, NATO will continue to stand with Ukraine.I wish you all continued courage and strength and a very productive Forum. Thank you so much.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;

Speech by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the KSF.

NATO Secretary General on Ukraine’s Accession to the Alliance: it is not about “if”, it is about “when”

Ukraine's victory is the victory of the entire free world over dictators and tyrants. The formula for victory is well known: the strength of the Ukrainian army, the unity of the free world, unwavering long-term military and financial support for Ukraine, and, first and foremost, Ukraine's membership in NATO. One element of victory is the restructuring of Ukraine's debt.An agreement with holders of international bonds allowing Ukraine to suspend payments expires in August. However, no agreement on debt restructuring has been reached yet. Creditors must find a compromise given Ukraine's dire situation amid the devastation caused by Russia’s war. The Ukrainian government should study the experience of the 2015 debt restructuring effort.In 2015, due to Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine and the poor policies of then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine was on the brink of default. Projected redemptions and debt servicing commitments amounted to an estimated $15 billion over four years. Ukraine’s war-torn economy, with its partially ruined industry, could not raise such funds.In August 2015, my Government (for which I served as prime minister) reached an agreement with the Creditor Committee to restructure part of the $18 billion international debt (one-fifth of the total debt). This included a total write-off of $3.6 billion and restructuring $14.4 billion in debt payments over four years. All bondholders, except Russia, accepted this offer.The restructuring was completed in November 2015 with a swap into new bonds and GDP warrants. In December 2015, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved a moratorium on paying off $3 billion of Russian debt. This was the first precedent of restructuring Ukraine’s external debt.It was far from ideal, yet the estimated savings amounted to almost $9 billion, including the write-off of debt principal and interest and the moratorium on redemption to Russia. Forty-one million dollars was paid by GDP warrants. The total savings equaled $8.9 billion. Indirect savings in the form of deferred interest payments of $4.3 billion remained in the budget and supported the Ukrainian economy.The current situation is much tougher. According to the World Bank, Ukraine’s war-incurred losses amount to $500 billion and grow daily. In 2022, defense funding needs resulted in a budget deficit of 18.6% of GDP in the first year of the full-scale war and 20.6% in the second year. This is five and five and a half times the level of the last pre-war year, respectively. Last year, slightly over 50% of state budget expenditures were funded by domestic revenues, and international financial assistance remains in high demand.The war's toll on Ukraine’s public finances is extremely detrimental. The national debt has already exceeded 90% of GDP and continues to grow. Almost 70% of all international financial assistance to Ukraine comes as loans, with interest to be paid by the state. The public budget deficit is exacerbated by extensive national security and defense spending, reconstruction of socio-economic infrastructure, medical care services, payments to temporarily displaced persons, and other public commitments.In these circumstances, Ukraine's economic survival becomes crucial and depends on resolving our national debt issue. The fewer public budget funds Ukraine needs to redeem and service its debt, the more it can invest in domestic weapons production and purchasing modern Western equipment. This enhances Ukraine’s ability to resist armed aggression, making it more likely for Ukraine to prevail and protect the civilized world from Russian military invasion. It reduces the risk of Russian missiles destroying children’s hospitals in Amsterdam or Warsaw and maternity hospitals in Berlin or Prague.It is necessary to address the optimistic assessment of Ukraine’s external aid needs. According to the current International Monetary Fund-supported program (Q2, 2023 – Q1, 2027), Ukraine’s need for external financial assistance is estimated at $122 billion. However, over two years of the full-scale war, partners have already disbursed $100 billion annually. Therefore, the $122 billion figure over almost four years is misleading compared to Ukraine's real funding needs. At least $400 billion is needed to avoid loss. To prevail, this figure should be increased by half.Napoleon Bonaparte is attributed with saying, “A war requires three things. First, money. Second, money. Third, money.” The civilized world should financially weaken the aggressor through sanctions and the confiscation of frozen assets and continue assisting Ukraine. We need long-term financial assistance, export facilitation, and energy recovery. Restructuring Ukraine’s external debt is part of the financial toolkit needed to prevail in this war.In late June, private creditors agreed to write off 37% of Ghana’s international bond value, despite Ghana not being at war. Some believe that since Ukraine receives large amounts of international aid, it can be used to settle with bondholders. However, over two-thirds of financial assistance arrives as loans to be redeemed. Importantly, international assistance funds are intended to support Ukraine, its economy, and its military to withstand the war.Some suggest rolling over bond repayments mentioned in this article for another two years. I categorically oppose this! There is no more space for interim decisions or further roll-overs. External public debt – bonds and GDP warrants – must be restructured in the form of a write-off. Ukraine should join NATO and the European Union. Ukraine must prevail in this war!My Cabinet was the only one in Ukraine’s history to reduce state debt. As a Ukrainian bondholder of $500,000, I call on all private bondholders to accept the Government's proposal to restructure Ukraine's international debt. As a last resort, the compromise limit is a 50% debt write-off. I am ready to assume losses in a heartbeat. Writing off Ukrainian debt means assisting Ukraine in achieving victory, which is also a victory for democracy and a just world order. Democracy and a just world order are the pillars of global economic sustainability, ensuring investment safety and security and investor profits worldwide.Arseniy Yatsenyuk, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-restructuring-ukrainian-debt-is-a-step-toward-democratic-victory/">Kyiv Independent</a>

One element of victory is the restructuring of Ukraine's debt.