Kyiv Security Forum

Analytical papers

The document is prepared by Andrew Wilson, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Affairs; by Irina Kobrinskaya, Senior Research Associate at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences; and Analysts of Open Ukraine Foundation.

The experts believe that Ukraine will remain open to all forms of cooperation with the rest of the world, even though it was officially declared as “not-bloc” country under Viktor Yanukovych. Kostiantyn Hryshchenko, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stresses “new Ukrainian pragmatism” in foreign policy.

The authors appeal: “Ukraine must find its own place not just in a multi-polar world, but in a multi-polar Europe.” They think that Russia and Turkey no longer seek to join the West as junior partners, but see themselves as regional powers with a global voice.

“China meanwhile is quietly emerging not just as another economic player in Eastern Europe, but one that eschews the conditional engagement that is the EU’s traditional modus operandi”: warn experts. They consider the European presence in the Black Sea Region as one of the weakest and it is obvious for them that the U.S. is losing its interest in the region as well.

They raise important question: “Where does Ukraine fit in this security debate? What specific contribution can it make to thinking outside the box of the old paradigms of the 1990s?”

The documents are prepared by Professor Michael Cox from London School of Economics, United Kingdom and Graeme Herd, Head of the International Security Programme, Geneva Center for Security Policy, Switzerland.

The experts believe that the first decade of the 21st century has been marked by a more visible and rapidly growing power shift from Euro-Atlantic space to East and South Asia. Graeme Herd assumes that “When we look at potential challengers, it appears that China is neither willing nor yet able with ‘new Asia’ too uncertain and influx.”

The US are actually in an economic drop but just few serious people in China who feel that China is anywhere close to catching up with the United States. "A sharp headline after all is no substitute for the facts - and the fact remains that the western powers overall still retain some big structural advantages, none more so than its supposedly beleaguered leader, the United States of America" - noted Cox.