This year, Ukraine is planning to produce seven million drones. Meanwhile, in the US, the so-called ‘arsenal of democracy’, we only produce 300,000 per year.

Excerpt from the speech by General David Petraeus, Member of the KSF Security Council, Commander of U.S. Central Command (2008–2010), Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2011–2012), at a Special Session of the KSF ‘12 Years of War. What Next?’, published on the NV website.

First of all, I would like to express my respect not only for the Ukrainian military, whom I greatly admire, but also for the Ukrainian people, the people of Ukraine. We are well aware of the hardships they are going through. Two days ago, I visited one of the units that specialises in drones. It was freezing cold there, the kind of cold that chills you deep down to your bones. I don't think I've experienced such cold weather since my days at military school in Georgia. What the Ukrainians have done, how they show their resilience and creativity, is truly impressive.

This is my ninth visit to Ukraine since 2022.

We met with Mr. Syrsky and with his deputies separately. We also visited the drone unit. We were at the newly established drone control centre. That is also extremely impressive. I also spoke with the head of DTEK, who told me about the enormous problems Ukraine is facing due to the shelling of its power grids and what is being done to restore them... We met with the Third Corps at the Zmiinyi Island Institute.

We are observing how the situation changes every month. For me, as an old soldier, it is a great joy to see the creative approach that Ukrainians are taking.

I agree with The Wall Street Journal — Putin will not win.

I truly believe that this is the case. Ukraine, which has no military navy, has managed to force the Russian fleet into hiding, and most of this fleet has been destroyed. How was this achieved? Through ingenuity. And through intelligence, of course. They found out where the ships were, determined their location, and sank them. Even the flagship Moskva was sunk. It was an extraordinary sight.

Ukraine is increasingly bringing the war to Russian territory, to critical military infrastructure and oil refineries. We are seeing the use of Flamingo cruise missiles, which have a longer range than their American counterparts — 3,000 km — and a larger warhead. This is another example of how Ukraine's industrial power is being realised. And it will cause enormous damage to Russia. I can say the same about Ukraine's shorter-range weapons — production is scaling up.

We are following the negotiations. Their outcome is predictable.

Ukraine is showing the willingness and skills to reach a compromise, but at the same time not to violate its Constitution and not to cross certain red lines in terms of territory exchange. I think that ultimately the United States will understand that Putin has no intention of agreeing to a ceasefire with Ukraine. It is very important that our European friends play a key role in developing security measures and guarantees for Ukraine. And that the United States is involved in this in terms of monitoring and confirming violations, if any.

Medvedev, Putin and others continue to insist on their basic demands, primarily the demilitarisation of Ukraine, demanding that they be given land and fortified cities that they have been unable to capture for such a long time. I think they would be happy to see President Zelensky replaced by some pro-Russian figure.

And I am sure that this is a miscalculation on their part.

But right now, there is a unique opportunity.

Russia has become much more vulnerable economically and socially. Their ‘national welfare fund’ will run out this year. India is going to buy much less oil and gas from them. The European Union has set a price cap. This means that they are receiving much less income and are doing enormous damage to their economy.

There are no loan-based investments in Russia. The inflation rate is very high. They are now in a extremely difficult situation. And all this is happening in the midst of negotiations.

We are all aware that Putin is not taking this seriously. Therefore, the US needs to re-approve the sanctions supported by Senator Lindsey Graham and more than 100 other senators. The European Union is also currently considering a 20th round of sanctions. It has approved a €90 billion support package for Ukraine. This changes the situation significantly. At the very least, it will help Ukraine improve its economic and financial situation, in particular by doubling the production of important drones. And I do not rule out that this will also begin to convince Putin that he may suffer more than Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans.

Ukraine plans to produce 7 million drones. The US needs to learn from this.

Of course, we need to provide Ukraine with much more, for example, in terms of air defence and ballistic missile defence. This is very difficult to do, but Ukraine needs it. This year, Ukraine may produce 7 million drones, somewhere between 9,000 and 10,000 per day. And here in the United States, in the arsenal of democracy, we have 300,000 per year.

They change the software almost every week and the hardware every few weeks. There has never been a procurement system like this before.

We all need to recognise and understand what is happening here. We need to revise our approaches, our practices, and change our organisational structure. Because Ukraine already has unmanned systems forces and cyber forces. And we need to prepare and train our leaders. We need to procure materials. And many other things. We are not doing this quickly enough. We must learn from the experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In fact, Ukraine is now developing tomorrow's technology for today's war. And in our case, in the United States, the process is taking too long, which ultimately leads to yesterday's technology being developed for tomorrow's war. So what you are doing now is a unique opportunity, given the great vulnerability of the Russian economy and the strong support of the European Union.

We must take additional measures to help Ukraine stop the Russians on the front lines and counter missiles and swarms of drones. We must inflict even greater damage on the Russian economy, including sanctions, including secondary sanctions against countries that supply components to the Russian armed forces. China alone supplies a huge number of components, chips and motors to the Russian military-industrial complex.

What comes next?

You won't believe it, but I am also a former economics teacher. Of course, the answer to every question like this begins with the words: it depends…

In this case, the answer should be formulated roughly as follows: it largely depends on how Europe continues to support Ukraine. If there is a 20th package of sanctions from Europe, if the US is able to impose the draconian sanctions proposed by Senator Graham, this will determine the situation for the future:

will we be able to crush Russia's military economy,

will we be able to cut off oil revenues,

will we be able to deprive Russia of foreign components for weapons.

Russia has already lost more than 1.2 million killed and wounded. That is more than the United States lost during the entire Second World War. Look at it in context. Yes, they do have a large country, but such levels of loss are unacceptable for any country.

Providing Ukraine with long-range weapons, helping to produce weapons such as Flamingo to inflict serious damage on Russia's energy networks, oil refineries, etc. If these steps are taken and the Ukrainian military continues to approach its work with the same innovative approach it has demonstrated up to now, I believe that with the depletion of the ‘national welfare fund,’ Putin will be forced to engage in genuine negotiations to end the war.

The more we do to bring that day closer, the better.

For Ukraine, for its people, and for its army.