The key issue of the war by russia against Ukraine and the entire civilized world is how this war is to end or, to be precise, how the victory of Ukraine and its allies should look like. Everyone knows what to do with Ukraine after its victory – to rebuild it and integrate it into NATO and EU. But strategic uncertainty about the future of russia lingers on precluding more decisive steps by the international community.

Indiscriminate mass murders by russian soldiers of the Ukrainian population in occupied territories, daily missile shelling of civilian infrastructure as an established military modus operandi, as well as overwhelming support by the russian populace of this war makes it obvious that it will be impossible to integrate russia into Europe as a democratic nation any time soon. Their system of values is incompatible with ours. Russians have been hating the West for centuries, so it will take at least several decades before we can speak of any integration with the democratic world. So, our modus vivendi with post-war Russia has to be co-existence. For the foreseeable future russia cannot be part of a pan-European security architecture.

Next, many friends of Ukraine argue that, in the end, we must weaken russia so much that it will not be able to attack any of its neighbors ever again. What does it mean in practical terms? The answer is quite obvious: russia must be deprived of all of its weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical and biological. An aggressor has no right to possess this kind of weapons. Only then can Ukraine and other potential victims be really safe. Demilitarized Russia will never dare attacking others, because it will be swiftly defeated by collective efforts of international community. So, after Ukraine wins on the battlefield and restores its territorial integrity in the borders of 1991, the sanctions against the russian federation must be preserved and linked to its total and complete demilitarization. Regardless of the name of a future russian leader and its political regime.

This idea is fully in line with the Ukrainian peace plan, namely its point #9, because this is the only “waterproof” way to avert any future aggression by moscow.

A nuclear-free russia is a good idea for USA and China too, so the two major superpowers can have an important task together putting aside their rivalry for some time. After that all other countries will promptly follow suit strengthening global isolation of the rogue state. Denuclearization of russia will also lead to a dramatic reduction of nuclear stockpiles by Washington and, partially, maybe even by Beijing, because they will have no use for so many of them any longer. So that will make the whole world a better and safer place to live.

In order to make true the above scenario, we need to answer two main questions:

First, how to deter Russia from the nuclear option now (either using tactical nukes or blowing up a nuclear power station)? The only effective leverage is a threat to personal lives of president putin and his closest cronies. As putin truthfully said to general Jim Mattis, the russian rulers don’t care about other human lives, nor losing part of their army, nor sanctions, because their TV mouthpieces can explain away anything. But they do care very much about their own lives. They just pretend to be crazy so we shall be afraid to punish them. Besides, this threat must be made not by William Burns or Jake Sullivan in private talks with their counterparts, but publicly by president Joseph Biden. He used to call putin a killer, so a killer must be swiftly neutralized if he goes berserk with nuclear. If such a threat is not credible, nothing will stop putin from attacking any NATO member tomorrow. If, however, such a threat is credible, the West can stop worrying about escalation and provide Ukraine with all the weapons right away. Kremlin will not dare reply with nuclear.

Second, how to achieve disarmament of Russia after its defeat on the conventional battlefield? Well, its political, security and business leaders still have funds and property abroad; and their families love to travel to pleasant sunny destinations. When all of those fruits will be denied to them, and the internal struggle and mass impoverishment of the russians will dramatically increase, those leaders will face a choice:

Either they will be confronted with major upheavals at home – “senseless and ruthless”, as always, or they give up WMDs in exchange for personal safety abroad and some property and cash retainers. Of course, the war criminals will be punished by international prosecution.

So, the international community will reach out a helping hand and arrange a deal. The irony is that Ukraine may find itself to be one of the signatories under a document that will provide the russian federation with the assurances of its security, sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for its WMDs.  

The alternative to this scenario will be permanent wars by the russian empire with its neighbors, both non-NATO and NATO, every 10 to 15 years, and no security guarantees by NATO will stop this. That will mean permanent need for huge investments into the military and fossil fuels. And that in the face of disastrous climate change. We have no time to waste. The time is ripe to finish with the russian empire once and for all. The future generations of the russian people will be very grateful for that. And the entire world will sigh with enormous relief seeing how many global problems miraculously disappear.

Oleksandr Aleksandrovych, Ambassador-at-large, former Head of International Security Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine