Kyiv Security Forum Analytics

The document analyses threats to US security and American interests around the world. Russia is mentioned not just once, but repeatedly in connection with China, North Korea and Iran.

In the context of security threats to the US territory, reference is made to Moscow’s efforts to develop new, advanced or conventional delivery systems for nuclear and conventional warheads.

Russia possesses the largest and most diverse arsenal of nuclear weapons and is modernising it, despite numerous failed tests of new systems. China remains intent on modernising, diversifying and expanding its nuclear capabilities for strategic competition with the US. Both countries continue to develop nuclear systems designed to penetrate or circumvent US missile defences. North Korea is firmly committed to expanding its nuclear arsenal, as evidenced by the pace of flight tests and its publicly stated uranium enrichment capabilities.

Russia poses the main challenge to the US in the Arctic, as it seeks to advance its interests in the region within the context of broader global competition.

Moscow aims to expand and deepen its presence there by increasing maritime trade, natural resource extraction and military activity. The bulk of Russia’s Arctic forces are concentrated on the Kola Peninsula, where around two-thirds of Russia’s second-strike nuclear capabilities are based. The Russian Northern Fleet is stationed in this area, including seven national strategic submarines armed with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

China maintains limited activities in the Arctic and seeks to advance its strategic and economic interests through its relationship with Moscow.

Space threats

China and Russia are developing anti-space capabilities to challenge US space efforts and American dominance in this sphere.

Cyber threats

Cyber actors from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and ransomware groups will continue to pose critical threats to US networks and critical infrastructure.

Russia is also mentioned in the context of threats from chemical and biological weapons, alongside China and North Korea.

Russian scientists continue to develop new capabilities to combat chemical weapons. Its intelligence services have used the nerve agent ‘Novichok’ twice since 2018 in assassination attempts, and the Russian military has used chemical agents in thousands of attacks on Ukrainian forces since 2022. China likely possesses CW (Chemical Warfare)  capabilities that threaten US forces, allies and partners, as well as the civilian population. North Korea maintains its CW capabilities, and Pyongyang may use such weapons during a conflict or in an unconventional or covert attack.

Over the past five years, Russia has undermined arms control agreements and used chemical weapons in Ukraine.

However, Moscow is likely to continue to adhere to restrictions against the large-scale use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, unless there is a significant shift in its conflict with Ukraine.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has made nuclear threats against the US and NATO, announced the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and unilaterally suspended data exchanges. Moscow has also withdrawn from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Furthermore, it is developing space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapons, the deployment of which, should they be used, would contravene its obligations under the Outer Space Treaty.

China, Russia, Iran and North Korea view the US as a strategic competitor and a potential adversary.

They seek to counter and undermine US influence and power in the world through a range of diplomatic, economic and military means. Meanwhile, Russia continues to challenge US interests and influence, seeking to restore its influence across the former Soviet sphere, particularly in Ukraine.

Selective cooperation between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, driven by a shared aim to counterbalance Washington’s efforts and actions and to support their own strategies, amplifies the threat each poses to the US. However, these relations are limited and predominantly bilateral, and the concept of a ‘hostile alliance’ exaggerates the depth of the cooperation currently taking place.

Nevertheless, China’s interaction with Russia significantly enhances Moscow’s ability to sustain the war in Ukraine and withstand external pressure. China’s imports of Russian oil and natural gas provide key sources of revenue for Moscow, helping it withstand international sanctions. China’s exports of dual-use goods and technologies to Russia help sustain Moscow’s defence production, whilst reducing its incentives to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine.

China, Russia and Iran seek to maintain economic, political and military cooperation with Latin America as well, which may conflict with US interests in the region.

Thus, Washington harbours no illusions regarding Moscow’s role and the threats it poses. The issues arising between Kyiv and the EU with the US administration, when the war with Russia is concerned, lie not in the assessment of threats, but in defining the objectives and methods for combating them.