Kyiv Security Forum Analytics

•    Hungary is entering a decisive phase of political struggle. Parliamentary elections will be held on 12 April, and for the first time in many years, there is a real prospect that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has ruled the country since 2010, will lose power.

•    For the first time, the opposition has a significant lead over the ruling party. According to a poll by Zavecz Research (22–28 February) among voters who have made up their minds, 50% support the Tisza party and 38% support Fidesz. Among all voters, the figures are 38% against 32%. About 20% are still uncertain.

•    The new leader in Hungarian politics is Péter Magyar, a former ally of Orbán. He heads the Tisza party and is campaigning under the slogans of fighting corruption, unblocking EU funds and returning Hungary to the European mainstream.

•    The elections are effectively turning into a referendum on the geopolitical course: continued confrontation with the EU and semi-isolation, or a return to democratic Europe and strengthening the country's role in the EU and NATO.

•    The economic situation is weakening the government's position: GDP growth is less than 1%, the budget deficit is over 4%, industrial production is falling and prices are rising. More than €19 billion in EU funds remain blocked due to problems with the rule of law and corruption.

•    Orbán has made conflict with Brussels and Kyiv part of his political strategy. His government is blocking new sanctions against Russia, slowing down negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU and opposing a large financial aid package for Ukraine.

•    Anti-Ukrainian rhetoric has become one of the key themes of Fidesz's election campaign. Orbán is spreading narratives about an alleged ‘Ukrainian threat’ to Hungary's energy system and sharply criticising Kyiv, while barely reacting to Moscow's actions.

•    The detention of Ukrainian cash collectors by Hungarian law enforcement agencies caused a scandal. This involved the stopping and detention of cash collection vehicles belonging to a Ukrainian bank during a regular currency transport operation. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs rightly called these actions a de facto taking of people hostage. The incident is a telling example of how even forceful and diplomatic mechanisms are used by Budapest to exert political pressure on Ukraine.

•    The stance of the opposition towards Ukraine is not clear-cut. The Tisza party did not support the aid package for Ukraine in the European Parliament, and Magyar himself spoke out against Ukraine's accelerated accession to the EU and the transfer of weapons.

•    At the same time, the arrival of the new government will almost certainly mean an end to the demonstrative pro-Russian policy and the systematic blocking of EU decisions on Ukraine.

•    A poll conducted by the Tisza party showed that about 60% of Hungarians support Ukraine's accession to the EU, which indicates that anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is largely a product of political propaganda.

•    Even if the opposition wins, Hungary will not automatically become an ally of Ukraine, but it may cease to be the main blocker of European policy towards Kyiv.