Kyiv Security Forum Analytics

In his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney effectively proclaimed the collapse of the old world order based on the strategic partnership of the West, the primacy of international law and shared values. While not perfect and not ensuring complete equality between large and small states, this order nevertheless guaranteed relative stability and clear rules of the game, which ultimately contributed to global prosperity.

The special rights of the major players were offset by their responsibility to abide by the rules –  and that is why such asymmetries were considered acceptable.
Similar thoughts and conclusions have recently been expressed by many politicians and analysts. However, Carney went further. He attempted to lay the ideological foundations for a new world order, which, in his view, should provide for the diversification of relations between medium and small states –  both with major centres of power and among themselves. This refers to multi-format cooperation aimed at counteracting the dominance and impunity of global leaders. The configuration of such coalitions in different areas may vary, as the main goal is to ensure the survival of the weaker states, protect their interests and, at the same time, preserve respect for values.

Although the Canadian Prime Minister does not directly mention US President Donald Trump when justifying the need for change, it is obvious to everyone that he is the main target. Everyone, including Trump himself.

The policy of pressure chosen by the new American administration towards both opponents and allies undermines the West's strategic partnership –  political, economic and military. Although not all forms of cooperation have been destroyed, neither Canadians nor Europeans are completely confident in their continued existence. The lack of trust in Washington has led to increased contacts between former US partners and other global players, including China, Latin American countries and India.

Not only does Carney not downplay or hide Canada's diversification of economic ties in favour of other major players, including opponents of the West, but quite the contrary –  he emphasises it as the only possible economic policy option for a country seeking to protect its interests from the pressure of its large neighbour.

Canada's new trade agreement with China, signed in January 2026, radically reduces tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports –  from 100% to 6.1% –  and provides for a quota of 49,000 vehicles per year with the possibility of further increases. In return, China is abolishing high tariffs on Canadian canola (rapeseed) and peas, facilitating Canadian farmers' access to the Chinese market.

This agreement continues last year's trend of diversifying Canadian exports, particularly energy products, in response to unfriendly tariff decisions and political statements by the United States. As Carney noted, Canada has also agreed on a comprehensive strategic partnership with the European Union, including joining SAFE, the European defence procurement mechanism. In addition, Ottawa is negotiating free trade areas with India, ASEAN countries, Thailand, the Philippines and the MERCOSUR bloc.

President Trump's reaction to Carney's policy is emotional and demonstratively sensitive. Washington's inability to stand alone against the whole world will become even more apparent if Europeans begin to actively apply the new rules of the game. In fact, they are already moving in this direction. This is evidenced by the European Union's signing of a free trade agreement with the South American MERCOSUR bloc and the desire of European capitals for pragmatic economic relations with Beijing.

At the same time, the strategic rift between Europe and Washington is currently held in check not only by the scale of mutual trade, but also by security interests. Europe is not yet capable of standing up to threats from Moscow on its own without US support. This also applies to Ukraine.

The announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of a new world order concept should be a loud wake-up call, not a death knell for the Western Partnership.