Kyiv Security Forum Analytics

The latest summit of the European Political Community (EPC) is taking place in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. Since October 2022, this initiative has brought together European leaders – excluding Russia and Belarus – to discuss European security issues and demonstrate Russia’s international isolation. This is the first time the meeting has taken place in a country hosting a legally established Russian military base. A country which, despite tense relations with Russia and the organisations created by Moscow to control the post-Soviet space, is officially a member of the CSTO, the Eurasian Economic Union and the CIS.

This is yet another signal to Moscow that its aggressive imperial policy is not accepted, in this case from the capital of its former loyal ally.

Coinciding with the EaP summit in Yerevan, the first Armenia-EU bilateral summit is also taking place, attended by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa. On the agenda is the development of cooperation in the context of the geopolitical pivot towards the EU announced by Yerevan last year, the aim of which is to secure EU membership in the long term.

The trend towards Armenia’s distancing from Moscow is evident, although it is not always linear, with a certain level of pragmatic economic ties being maintained. This is evidenced by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow in April and his meeting with Putin. In response to the latter’s remark that membership of the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are incompatible, Pashinyan noted that at this stage he sees no contradiction. And when the time comes to make a choice – the Armenian people will make it.

It cannot be said that Moscow is taking Yerevan’s policy shift in its stride. There are threats of price hikes for Russian energy resources and tariffs on Armenian exports. Hybrid methods of influence are being actively employed – ranging from information campaigns on Telegram claiming that holding the two aforementioned summits would mark a point of no return in relations with Russia, to hacker threats.

Armenia remains dependent on Russian energy resources, purchasing Russian gas at preferential rates. Around 25% of its exports go to Russia. Nevertheless, with the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow has lost its most significant lever of influence over Yerevan.

The prospects for the development of Armenia’s relations with the EU also remain unclear for the time being. The timeline for granting candidate status is undefined. At the same time, the West’s interest in separating the South Caucasus from Russia speaks in favour of the country’s European orientation.

As for Armenia’s resolve on the path to the EU, much will depend on the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for June. According to the International Republican Institute (IRI), the approval rating of the current Prime Minister and his political party stood at 24% in March.

However, Armenia’s pro-European policy is not merely a decision of the elite. It is now actively supported by the Armenian people as well. According to IRI research from February 2026, 72% of respondents fully or partially support Armenia’s EU membership, which is the highest figure recorded since monitoring on this issue began. The capital of Armenia, Yerevan, is hosting the latest summit of the European Political Community (EPC). Since October 2022, this initiative has brought together European leaders, excluding Russia and Belarus, to discuss European security issues and demonstrate Russia’s international isolation. This is the first time the meeting has taken place in a country on whose territory a Russian military base is legally present. In a country which, despite tense relations with Russia and the organisations created by Moscow to control the post-Soviet space, is officially a member of the Organisation of the Collective Security Treaty (CSTO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This is yet another signal to Moscow that its aggressive imperial policy is not accepted, in this case from the capital of its former loyal ally.