Kyiv Security Forum Analytics

According to a recently published poll by Odoxa, Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right ‘National Rally’ (Le Pen’s party), could come to power in the next French presidential election in spring 2027. This means that one of the key member states, on whose support and influence we have traditionally relied in recent years, could radically change its role and become one of our main adversaries, both in terms of providing assistance in the war against Russia and on the path to our country’s membership of the EU and NATO.

The threat from the far right is not new to France. But previously, at critical moments, it was possible to circumvent it by the traditional alignment of all key political forces, led by the centrists, against Le Pen’s party. The difference today is that the far-left leader of ‘Unbowed France’, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, could come second after Bardella, and it will be difficult for him to act as a unifying force. Politico calls this ‘a nightmare scenario for Brussels in the French elections’. However, not just for Brussels.

So far, the gap in the polls does not look quite so dramatic. In the first round, the conservative candidate, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, trails Mélenchon by 4% (12% to 16%). Philippe can expect a similar defeat in the second round against Bardella (48% to 52%). However, if Bardella and Mélenchon face off in the second round, the far-right’s lead will be clear (in November, Odoxa put the odds at 74% to 26%).

On the far-right of the political spectrum, Bardella stands out favourably from the party’s previous leaders, including Marine Le Pen herself. He is considered a pragmatist, less ideologically tied to the party’s old Eurosceptic tenets. Taking public sentiment into account, he has moved away from slogans calling for an exit from the eurozone or the EU along the lines of the British Brexit, which reduced Marine Le Pen’s chances of winning during previous campaigns. As political commentators point out, Bardella’s economic priorities are closer to traditional right-wing conservative ones.

The difference in views between Bardella and Le Pen, who adheres to more traditional Eurosceptic values, is seen as one of the signs of a split within the ranks of the ‘National Rally’. At the same time, such flexibility in the party’s principles may also serve as a deliberate tool for expanding the party’s electoral support.

Following Russia’s large-scale invasion in 2022, the party’s official stance on Putin also became more flexible. Under pressure from public support for Ukraine, former sympathies towards the Russian dictator were erased from the party’s public image. Whilst condemning certain aspects of Russian aggression, the National Rally avoids open confrontation with the Kremlin. It has repeatedly opposed certain military aid packages for Ukraine and the expansion of sanctions against Russia, both in the European Parliament and during votes in the French National Assembly. Bardella himself has emphasised that he does not object to providing Ukraine with defence aid, but does not support sending French troops to Ukraine or supplying our country with long-range weaponry. According to the far-right leader, he will not allow “Russian imperialism to swallow up an ally such as Ukraine”. At the same time, he seeks to avoid escalation with Russia.

More threatening to Ukraine’s interests is Bardella’s stance on the country’s membership of the EU and NATO. He is categorically opposed to both. As for the EU – given the potential competition for markets and, evidently, for funds – and as for NATO – due to what he believes will be a deterioration in relations with Russia and an escalation of the war. These same reasons also underpin his opposition to tightening sanctions against Putin’s regime.

At the same time, it is worth taking into account certain personal nuances of the young leader of the far-right. It cannot be ruled out that his ambition for leadership not only on the national but also on the European stage will contribute to a gradual shift in his views towards the European mainstream. The example of Giorgia Meloni may prove tempting for this young and ambitious politician.