The rise in oil prices caused by the war in Iran has led to higher gas prices, which will, in turn, lead to price increases across the board, including food. This was stated by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum and Prime Minister of Ukraine from 2014 to 2016, in an interview with Hromadske Radio on the programme ‘Beyond the Headlines’.

“Oil prices have dragged gas prices up as well. For Ukrainians, this means: the price of fuel at petrol stations is different, and the price for the industrial sector in Ukraine (where industrial inflation has already exceeded 20%) is different. Secondly, this leads to inflation in general. If the price of petroleum products and gas rises, the next stage is a rise in prices for everything, including food. This is how basic economic laws work. The only question here is the time lag: will it be in a week or a month? This affects Ukraine’s fragile economy. The higher the price of energy, the higher the inflation,” emphasised the Chairman of the KSF.

Yatsenyuk warned of the risk of stagflation – the simultaneous rapid rise in prices and a fall in economic growth. “This is what will happen to our neighbours in the European Union. This is already being predicted,” he noted.

At the same time, Russia is profiting from this crisis. According to the KSF Chairman’s calculations, the aggressor country has already received around $2 billion in additional revenue. “If you look at global price trends now, you will see the following: every $10 increase in the price of oil per day equates to roughly $50 million in additional revenue for Russia. There is already a rise of at least $40 today. That is $200 million in additional revenue for Russia per day. Ten days is $2 billion, and a month is $6 billion. There are various estimates – ranging from $5 to $7 billion – which Russia will receive in additional revenue each month,” Yatsenyuk explained.

The Chairman of the KSF cited specific figures for war expenditure: on average, Russia spends $10 billion a month on the war against Ukraine, and it now has at least a further $5 billion a month in additional funds.

Hence, according to Yatsenyuk, there is a clear answer to the question of the prospects for peace: “Do you think Russia is closer to or further from real peace talks with Ukraine?”

He noted that Iran is an accomplice to Russia’s crimes against Ukraine. “The Iranian regime did not merely sign a strategic partnership agreement with Russia in 2025. Since 2022, it has been supplying Russia with ‘Shahed’ drones, which Russia has now modernised,” the former prime minister emphasised.

According to the KSF Chairman, a new axis of evil has been formed and is led by China. “Neither Russia, nor North Korea, nor Iran could behave this way without China. China will never show them that they are the senior partner in this group. China has a thousand-year history; they know how to bide their time. But in fact, an axis of evil has been formed, in which Iran played a key role,” Yatsenyuk stressed.