The russian army is significantly behind schedule in seizing Ukrainian territories due to the Ukrainian Defence Forces' effective counteraction, particularly in the Donetsk region.

Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder of the DeepStateUA project, made this statement during Kyiv Security Forum Special Session on the Global Situation and the Prospects for Peace in Ukraine "12 Years of Russia's War Against Ukraine: What Comes Next?"

"Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, big battles are happening there now. According to russian plans, these settlements were supposed to be captured before winter 2025. However, they are far behind schedule. This is primarily due to the efforts of the Defence Forces. There are heavy battles for every piece of land, every settlement, and every neighbourhood. Some predicted that Pokrovsk would fall by the new year. Today, however, we see that the northern outskirts of both cities are still in combat and under the control of the Defence Forces," he noted.

The expert noted that russia has concentrated about 100,000 troops in the region, "but they still cannot take these cities or overcome the Ukrainian Defence Forces."

"In Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the russians are testing our defence capabilities. They are trying to identify our weaknesses and determine how to enter these settlements. There are already battles on the outskirts of these cities. Kostiantynivka and Lyman are essentially the gateway to the Sloviansk and Kramatorsk agglomerations, as well as the remaining part of the Donetsk region that the russians want to capture. We predict at least two years of fighting where they will lose a significant number of people and a substantial amount of equipment and other resources," Roman Pohorilyi emphasised.

When discussing Zaporizhzhia and the surrounding area, he noted that the statements of the aggressor's top military leadership differ from the actual situation.

"Recently, the Chief of the General Staff of the russian federation claimed that they were launching an offensive and preparing for a battle in Zaporizhzhia. He mentioned the settlements of Malokaterynivka, Prymorske, Richne, and Stepnohirsk in particular. They claimed last year that they had occupied these settlements, particularly Stepnohirsk. This shows how the russians are fighting today. What they say in the media is not true; the Defence Forces do not allow the enemy to advance," the expert said.

According to him, at the same time, the russians are pulling up additional resources and forming groups there. Accordingly, "in the future, we will have a big battle for Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhia region."

"Huliaipole is the eastern flank of the Zaporizhzhia region. From there, they will try to advance into our territory, connect with the southern group, and occupy the entire region," he said.

According to the co-founder of DeepStateUA, the enemy is "moving chaotically" in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipro regions.

"Given the opportunity, they exploit our weaknesses and problems. The further they advance, the stronger their negotiating position becomes. They are planning to exchange the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions for Zaporizhzhia, which they have been unable to capture in the four years since the full-scale invasion began," he concluded.

Open Ukraine is an international foundation established by Arseniy Yatsenyuk in July 2007 to strengthen Ukraine's authority in the world. The foundation organises the Kyiv Security Forum every year. This leading international discussion platform focuses on issues of war and peace. The foundation also organises the Youth Kyiv Security Forum to develop a new generation of Ukrainian leaders.