54% of Ukrainians do not believe that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia can be signed in the near future – within the next 12 months. Furthermore, 61.6% are convinced that Russia will violate the agreement and attack as soon as it sees fit. These findings are revealed in a sociological survey commissioned by the Kyiv Security Forum.

26.7% of respondents believe that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia could be signed in the near future, whilst 19.3% find it difficult to answer.

Faith in victory

Most Ukrainians believe in Ukraine’s victory: 36.3% answered ‘yes’, and another 30% answered ‘rather yes’.

13.6% answered ‘rather no’. 9.5% of those surveyed do not believe in Ukraine’s victory. 10.6% found it difficult to answer.

What constitutes victory

Respondents’ understanding of victory somewhat varies. In particular, among those surveyed, the following are considered victories:

• The expulsion of Russian troops beyond the line of contact as of 23 February 2022 (the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea remain under occupation) – 22.5%
• The expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the borders as they stood in 1991 – 22.3%
• An end to the war, even if the Russian army retains control of territories occupied after 24 February 2022 – 16.5%
• Destruction of the Russian army and support for an uprising/collapse within Russia – 12.7%
• Expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except for occupied Crimea – 9.5%

Difficult to answer – 14.5%; ‘other’ was selected as an answer option by 2%.

Scepticism towards peace agreements

Ukrainians’ views on the minimum necessary conditions for concluding a peace agreement with Russia are also divided. 28.8% believe it is essential for Ukraine to be liberated from Russian troops within its 1991 borders, whilst a further 27.5% believe this should be within the borders as of 24 February 2022. 21.7% suggest fixing the borders along the front line at the time the agreement is concluded.

At the same time, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians – 61.6% – are convinced that if a peace agreement is signed, Russia will violate it and attack Ukraine again as soon as it suits them.

17.2% believe that both sides will try to abide by the agreement. 4.5% believe that both sides will try to violate the agreement. 1.4% believe that Ukraine will violate the agreement and attack Russia. 15.4% find it difficult to answer.

The full text of the study will be presented at the Kyiv Security Forum on April 23.

The sociological survey was conducted by the Razumkov Centre on commission from the Kyiv Security Forum between 2 and 8 April 2026 using face-to-face interviews. A total of 1,200 respondents aged 18 and over were surveyed in the Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Chernivtsi regions, and the city of Kyiv (only in those territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and where no hostilities are taking place). The theoretical margin of error does not exceed 2.9%.