Armed conflicts result from failed political decisions, or failure to take t right decisions.

This approach to analyzing Russia’s war against Ukraine was taken by Dr. Greg Mills, Director of the Brenthurst Foundation, Advisory Board Member of RUSI, at the 17^th Annual Kyiv Security Forum “UA: UNITE AGAIN TO DEFEAT THE GLOBAL AGGRESSOR”, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk Foundation “Open Ukraine”.

Presenting his new book “The Art of War and Peace”, Dr. Mills drew parallels between the war in Ukraine, conflicts in Africa and the experience of countries like Afghanistan.

“We were too self-confident after the victories in the Cold War. In Afghanistan, we missed the political decision moment, and the result is too well known to all,” the analyst noted.

Dr. Mills outlined four possible scenarios of how situation in Ukraine may unfold. The first is the “Korean scenario,” when a protracted confrontation across the line of contact may end in partial agreements. The second option is a long-term division into two systems that lasts for generations.

He called the third scenario the “American strategy,” a contingent term, when the war culminates in a victorious end, requiring continuous military and financial support.

The fourth scenario, which he believes the most likely, involves rearmament, diplomacy, and maintaining subjectivity to attain a peaceful order. At the same time, the expert emphasized that Ukraine’s subjectivity remains of key importance — namely, the country’s ability to make decisions, effectively use international assistance, and maintain partners’ confidence.

The Kyiv Security Forum, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” foundation, is the main platform in Ukraine to discuss issues of war and peace, national and global security.