The claim that Ukrainian men will leave Ukraine en masse once the war ends and the borders reopen is unfounded. Ella Libanova, Director of the Mykhaylo Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Life Quality Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, emphasised this in an episode of the Open Reality project.

Responding to a question about widespread predictions of a mass exodus, the demographer explained why such a scenario is unlikely. “Moving abroad is fine when someone is waiting for you there. There won’t be the same [temporary protection] status as before, and the assistance available today isn’t what it was in 2022–2023,” she noted.

Libanova identified family reunification as the most likely reason for men leaving the country – when a husband returns from the front, while his wife and children have already settled in other countries. “If men return from the front or those who stayed here for various reasons, and there are no jobs here that would suit them, their homes are destroyed or never existed, while their wives are already employed abroad, renting accommodation, and the children are attending preschool or school – then this risk exists,” the demographer explained.

According to her estimate, even in such a case, we would be talking about no more than half a million people. “But I don’t think that will happen,” Libanova added.

She also noted that she sees no evidence to support reports of a mass exodus abroad of Ukrainian young men aged 18–22 following the issuance of the relevant permit last August. According to her, neither Eurostat data nor information from Ukrainian border guards indicates a significant increase in the proportion of young people among Ukrainians living abroad, although a certain increase in the total number of departures has indeed been recorded.

Ella Libanova stated that she does not view the division between Ukrainians who remained in the country and those who left for abroad as a source of social division. In her view, the opposition between these groups is largely being artificially stoked, primarily by Russia, to exacerbate internal conflicts. She also emphasised that after the war, key conditions for Ukrainians’ return will include security, maintaining trust in the state, and constant communication with citizens abroad to convey the message that Ukraine needs them.

Watch the interview at this link.

The OPEN REALITY special project on information security and critical thinking was launched by the Open Ukraine Foundation and the Kyiv Security Forum – initiatives of Arseniy Yatsenyuk.