Ukraine and its partners should not cherish excessive hopes on success of possible talks between the Donald Trump Administration and the Kremlin. The expectation strategy should be based on a “pessimistic scenario” and bracing for a new aggression wave from Russia.

This opinion was expressed David Ignatius, columnist, The Washington Post, at the 17th Annual Kyiv Security Forum “UA: UNITE AGAIN TO DEFEAT THE GLOBAL AGGRESSOR”, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk Foundation “Open Ukraine”.

“I refer to what I call ‘strategic pessimism’: suppose President Trump’s efforts at negotiations don’t work, and the Russians obstinate saying ‘no’, and then President Trump will just walk away. You hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” David Ignatius said. 

The columnist noted that Ukraine should already be developing an action plan in case negotiations fail, including capabilities to hold the front line without external support.

“I’m sure that this planning is already underway. We need to assume that Russia violates ceasefire again – so we must be ready. How will we record it? What tools, resources, monitoring should be applied?” David Ignatius enquired.

The columnist also emphasized that ending hostilities does not eliminate existing threats, as Russia can attack again. 

“When the war is over, what will there be to hold Russia back? Don’t expect Russia to draw conclusions. We must form a European force of deterrence - and think what happens if the US is not there with us,” he noted.

The columnist also emphasized that NATO must clearly determine whether Article 5 of its Treaty (“collective defense”) applies to Ukraine in future. This issue is already intertwined with the President Trump’s policy.

In conclusion, David Ignatius recalled the strength of Ukrainian standpoint back in 2022, when Kyiv rejected unjust demands and continued the fight.

“Ukraine knows how to say “no”. That is what you demonstrated in February 2022. That is what your President recently demonstrated in the Oval Office. President Trump needs to learn to say “no”. “Vladimir, please stop” is not what they say in such a case,” he added.

“J.D. Vance (US Vice President - ed.) took a step in the right direction yesterday when he said that “Russia is asking too much”.  Special envoy Kellogg (US Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg - ed.) said that “Russia is obstructing these negotiations”. These statements should be taken as steps in the right direction, this is just the beginning that should eventually turn into a very loud “no” supported unanimously,” David Ignatius summarized.

The Kyiv Security Forum, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” foundation, is the main platform in Ukraine to discuss issues of war and peace, national and global security.