Two-thirds of Ukrainians believe that Russia could attack NATO, and almost as many are convinced that Ukraine is capable of strengthening the Alliance. At the same time, Ukrainian support for accession to NATO and the EU has fallen slightly over the last two months, though it remains at a high level. These are the findings of a sociological survey commissioned by the Kyiv Security Forum.

EU accession

69% of respondents support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, 19.7% are against, and 11.3% find it difficult to answer. In February 2026, support for EU accession stood at 83%; in September 2025, the figure was 81.7%; and in September 2024, it was 73.7%.

By way of comparison: in November–December 2021, 55.6% of those surveyed were in favour of EU accession.

Opinions on the timing of accession are divided. 20.5% of respondents expect accession to take place within 3–5 years, and the same proportion expect it to happen within 5–10 years. 13.9% believe that Ukraine could join the European Union within 1–3 years.

At the same time, 13.9% of respondents believe that Ukraine will never join the EU, whilst 9.3% believe it will happen in 10–20 years. 22% found it difficult to answer.

NATO membership

According to the poll, 59.3% of respondents would vote in favour of Ukraine joining NATO in a referendum, 25.7% against, and 15% found it difficult to answer.

Support for NATO membership stood at 71.3% in February 2026. In September 2025, the figure was 68.5%.

By way of comparison: in November–December 2021, 47.8% of those surveyed would have voted in favour of accession.

Expectations regarding the timing of NATO accession are more subdued. 17.6% of respondents believe that Ukraine could join within 5–10 years, 13.8% within 3–5 years, and only 9.4% within 1–3 years.

A quarter of respondents are pessimistic: 23.4% believe that Ukraine will never join NATO. 26% find it difficult to answer. 9.9% expect accession in 10–20 years.

NATO’s effectiveness

Opinions on NATO’s ability to defend itself effectively in the event of a Russian attack are divided. 43.1% of respondents believe that NATO is capable of defending itself, 35.5% believe it is not, and 21.4% find it difficult to answer.

Most Ukrainians are convinced that Russia could attack one of the NATO countries: 16.8% believe it definitely intends to, 49.4% believe it might intend to. Only 13.1% think Russia does not intend to attack.

Ukraine’s contribution to NATO’s security

The vast majority of respondents – 68.6% – believe that Ukraine can contribute to strengthening NATO’s security: 24.2% are convinced that it can do so right now, whilst 44.4% believe it can do so once the war is over. Only 15.9% believe that Ukraine cannot make such a contribution.

The most common forms of potential support from Ukraine cited by respondents were: sharing expertise in air defence (47.5%), sharing tactics for combat operations against the Russian armed forces (46.5%), supplying Ukrainian-made drones (39.9%), sharing experience in maintaining and restoring critical infrastructure during wartime (30.1%), and supplying other Ukrainian-made weaponry (26.7%).

The full text of the study will be presented at the Kyiv Security Forum on April 23.

The sociological survey was conducted by the Razumkov Centre on commission from the Kyiv Security Forum between 2 and 8 April 2026 using face-to-face interviews. A total of 1,200 respondents aged 18 and over were surveyed in the Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Chernivtsi regions, and the city of Kyiv (only in those territories controlled by the Ukrainian government and where no hostilities are taking place). The theoretical margin of error does not exceed 2.9%.