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The US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz said that Europe must take care of Ukraine's security without the United States involved. President Trump said the US could provide financial support to Ukraine in exchange for its rare earth materials. The American president had a conversation with Putin. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is going to have a meeting with US Vice President JD Vance during the Munich Security Conference.Recent statements by US President Trump and his National Security Advisor Michael Waltz suggest a preference for a quick temporary ceasefire, with no indication of a real plan to end the war. That is why retired General Kellogg denied the information that such a plan would be presented.The idea of US cooperation in the field of rare earth metals and minerals should be viewed as evidence of the new US administration's business approach to solving geopolitical problems. This statement is aimed at at both the Republican Party's electorate, who are being told that the assistance to Ukraine will be exchanged for its resources, and at possible long term economic cooperation.The Kremlin deliberately does not confirm contacts with Trump in order to downplay both the significance of such contacts and the strength of the new US administration. The Kremlin's message that they are not afraid of Trump, has become a key media point in Russia.No breakthrough ideas should be expected in Munich. There will be no plan for ending the war, established by the United States, the EU, and Ukraine. Nor will there be an approved format for negotiations (which the Kremlin is only willing to agree to if the terms of Ukraine's surrender are accepted).Without the United States, it is impossible to provide real guarantees of Ukraine's security. The US, the EU, and Moscow all know this.Kellogg's visit to Ukraine might have an effect if a new aid package is announced. This would signal the US willingness to support Ukraine. However, the hopes for such a decision being made are, unfortunately, not realistic.We estimate the probability of the continuation of warfare in the next 6 months at 9 out of 10 (same as the previous assessment) and the the risks of unfavorable negotiating conditions for Ukraine at 8 out of 10 (one point higher than our previous assessment).

US presidential adviser Michael Volz notes that Europe should take care of Ukraine's security on its own, while Trump offers financial support in exchange for Ukrainian resources.

The White House wants a quick ceasefire

Ukrainian Youth visualized the future of Ukraine as a member-state of the EU and NATO, calling on the Alliance to make Ukraine join in. &nbsp;A respective letter of address was made public at the 10th Youth Kyiv Security Forum, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” Foundation, and attended by over 100 young leaders from across Ukraine.“We feel honored to address you on behalf of all Youth of Ukraine attending the Kyiv Security Forum. We would like to express our absolute certainty that the future of Ukraine is with the Alloance, and this country wills and can instil new energy and commitments to the Alliance membership”, - quoting the address to the NATO Secretary General.“We have developed new experience, novelty expertise, new-fangled approaches and modern strategies. We have proven the efficiency of our unmanned technologies and tactical innovations. We are confident that our experience assists ensuring comprehensive security to the whole Alliance, as well as strengthening collective defences and safeguards for the whole world, - the address letter authors emphasize.Young people argue that Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance can send a forceful signal international investors about stability of Ukraine, hence, leading to increased foreign direct investment, support of its economy and enhance European sustainability.“Ukraine can become a trusted partner ready to engage in joint production and technical potential contributing to overall European stability. History proves that Ukraine enjoys a legitimate right to become a NATO member-state within its historically recognized borders, - the address underlines.German experience serves and example here, when Western Germany accessed the Alliance first, and then the rest of the country joined in.“Ukraine must have the same ooportunity. Ukrainian youth has made its decisive choice of sharing democratic security values and collective defence not solely for the purpose of safeguarding our own borders, but to support peace and stability across the globe. Please accept our assurances of high respect and our joint wishes to build a stable future together with NATO,” – the address emphasizes.A separate address was drawn for the Government of Ukraine, calling on it to accelerate its efforts for the most speedy Euro-Atlantic integration. &nbsp;“Your Excellency Prime Minister of Ukraine! We, Youth of Ukraine, the generation tempered in war, address you profoundly aware of our mission. In 2022, when the enemy commenced its full-scale invasion into our lands, we made our strategic choice by submitting our application to join the European Union. This move did not solely mean signing an important document, this step became a symbol of our invincibility, faith, and commitments to European values. The European Commission report published on October 30, 2024, stresses our aspirations and readiness of the whole country to persevere, and registers our progress towards the EU membership. We clearly understand what path Ukraine has already conquered, while at the same time we remain aware of more system changes needed”, - the document states. &nbsp;The Youth of Ukraine stresses that the country’s national security, including its economic, political, information, energy, and social aspects can be ascertained by the country’s accession to the EU.“Integrating into the EU means taking steps towards European welfare, the latter being of paramount importance at the backdrop of the lasting war. Gaining the EU full-fledged membership demands harmonization of Ukrainian legislation to EU standards”, - the address underlines.Young people called on to continue efforts to establish a solid and trusted mechanism of investigating top-level corruption cases and ascertaining unbiased information space and mass media freedom.Ukraininan youth also emphasize the need to continue institutional reform agenda within the established timespans, namely, decentralization reform, enhancing civil service efficiency, ensuring independent judiciary, and fighting organized crime. “We are the generation of changes, the generation of warriors, and the generation of winners. Europe is not just a geography notion for us, it is the values system encompassing the right of each and every one to enjoy a decent life, personal fulfillment, and equal rights irrespective of gender, race, ethnicity or religious beliefs. This is the time to take action. We keep on being resilient on the frontline, and now we stand ready to prove our capability to implement European standards in this country. We have faith in our future, and we have faith in Ukraine”, - the document concludes.Youth Kyiv Security Forum is the leading platform to engage young leaders into discussion of national security issues and international relations agenda. &nbsp;

Ukrainian Youth visualized the future of Ukraine as a member-state of the EU and NATO, calling on the Alliance to make Ukraine join in.  

Youth of Ukraine calls on NATO to give Ukraine membership in the Alliance 

Our youth has always been the driver of changes in Ukraine.This was the chief message of Olena Kondratiuk, Deputy Speaker, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, at the 10th Youth Kyiv Security Forum organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” Foundation.“Since early Ukrainian independence, since the times of the Granite Revolution, the Orange Revolution, and the Revolution of Dignity young people of Ukraine were the major locomotives of changes in”, - she stated.Ms Kondratiuk stressed that the Ukrainians enjoy a unique chance: it was only yesterday when the European Commission adopted a very important decision giving us the opportunity to join the EU before 2029.“Just imagine the magnitude of changes that we have all attained in these years, in 33 years of Ukrainian independence. I remember when we were just young politicians. I remember when Arseniy Yatsenyuk was elected the Speaker of our Parliament. It was the time when communists were still present as one of the factions in our Parliament. It seems like yesterday and yet it is a tremendous distance we’ve conquered. And this process accelerates day by day,” – she mentioned.Olena Kondratiuk also stressed that joining the EU and NATO is our common strategic agenda.“The European Union is the very space, the very system of values, the democracy system that we have to live in and abide by. The Alliance means security and the opportunity for all of us to stop this blasted war”, - she underlined.Youth Kyiv Security Forum is the leading platform to engage young leaders into discussion of national security issues and international relations. &nbsp;

Our youth has always been the driver of changes in Ukraine.

Olena Kondratiuk: Our strategic objective is joining the EU and NATO 

Ukrainian cities are facing now a huge deficit of labor force, in particular, expert project managers capable of assisting Ukraine’s reconstruction.This was the prominent message of Mykhailyna Skoryk, Member of the Irpin City Council, Deputy Mayor Bucha city council (2022-2023), at the 10th Youth Kyiv Security Forum, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” Foundation.“Irpin is still in the process of recovering. Some 40 multi-story apartment buildings were completely ruined. Restructuring has not started yet as funds are absent. Apart from funds, we do need project managers capable of assisting municipal authorities, inviting donors to negotiate terms of engagement, cooperating with large international companies and attracting funds to rebuild the town”, - Ms Skoryk mentioned.According to her, Kyiv region is in a pitiful state after just one month of occupation, so it’s hard to imagine the scope of ruination and misery in Kherson or Kharkiv regions that find themselves under daily and nightly attacks, shelling, and heavy bombardment.“So, there is a huge demand for efficient and qighly &nbsp;qualified managers. And it is our generation that is expected to engage not only at the Euro-integration level, but at municipalities level as well”, - Mykhailyna Skoryk is certain.She also mentioned that early in the invasion she was in charge of Bucha municipal council digitalization and “smart city” development. So, with the war at the doorstep, her colleagues and she had to revive the town left with electricity, gas, or water supply: “This is what we were left with after russian army occupation”.“There are many young people today who speak English and work in municipalities, they negotiate directly with foreign donors. Their wages, alas, are incompatible to those in business, but they invest their knowledge into country’s development. We also register more and more people coming back from Poland or Germany and engaging in restructuring and rebuilding efforts of their hometowns. This is very important as well as positive, this gives us hope and inspiration”, - she concluded.Youth Kyiv Security Forum is the leading platform to engage young leaders into discussion of national security issues and international relations agenda. &nbsp;

Ukrainian cities are facing now a huge deficit of labor force, in particular, expert project managers capable of assisting Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Young people should become the engines of Ukrainian cities reconstruction, - Mykhailyna Skoryk 

Despite the third year of a full-scale war, Ukraine continues implementing its reform agenda necessary for accession to the European Union.This was the key message of Katarina Mathernova, Ambassador of European Union to Ukraine, at the 10th Youth Kyiv Security Forum, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” Foundation.“Ukraine is on the right track and is much closer to the EU today than one year ago”, - she said. &nbsp;“Our latest report records progress across the board, except for one very specific area. There is no backsliding. An what makes this report remarkable is the recognition of the fact that while waging existential was for national sovereignty, territorial integrity and freedom, Ukraine also transforms itself”, - Ambassador emphasized.She also added that progress is never linear, but there is a clear determination to join the EU, and do very difficult and sometimes even painful reforms approaching the country to the EU membership.“I’ve seen the “shadow” reports from various organizations touching upon sensitive issues like fighting corruption. This process is not a closed one yet in Ukraine. And I’d like to call on you; please keep up this good work”, - Katarina Methernova said.“Digitalization, security, economic potential are among important assets to join the EU. But the fundamental aspect of it is the people. People of Ukraine share the European values. And this is the fundamental vector that moves them on. We see shifting changes, we see landslide changes in appreciation of values. Naturally, there are problems and issues. There are whole cities destroyed, communities of people dislocated. But perseverance, determination and the very spirit of Ukrainians will make the country succeed”, - Ambassador Mathernova concluded.Youth Kyiv Security Forum is the leading platform to engage young leaders into discussion of national security issues and international relations agenda. &nbsp;

Despite the third year of a full-scale war, Ukraine continues implementing its reform agenda necessary for accession to the European Union.

Ukraine is closer to the EU on than one year ago, - EU Ambassador 

Ukraine will become a reliable ally in the Alliance.This was emphasized by Peter Hauge Berg, Deputy Head of the NATO Representation to Ukraine at the 10th Youth Kyiv Security Forum, organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” Foundation.This was his major comment of the address to the NATO Secretary General as drawn by the Forum young participants.Peter Hauge Berg stressed that he disagrees with just one statement in the address to the NATO Secretary General. Namely, the phrase of the address authors that “we will become reliable partners”.“I believe that you will become more allies than partners”, - he underlined.Deputy Head of the NATO Representation to Ukraine also mentioned that the country can bring something to the table.“Who would have thought it that the modern world war would be in trenches but with drones? And you produce drones on kitchen tables all over Ukraine at a speed of relevance and bring them to the frontline as fast as you can”, - he emphasized.The big defence industries in the United States and Europe could not do that, whereas Ukrainians made it happen.“This is impressive. You do this on top of the war waged for two and a half years. And this speaks volumes of what Ukraine really is”, - Peter Hauge Berg stressed.Youth Kyiv Security Forum is the leading platform to engage young leaders into discussion of national security issues and international relations agenda. &nbsp;

Ukraine will become a reliable ally in the Alliance.

Ukraine will become a reliable ally within NATO, - Deputy Head of the NATO Representation to Ukraine 

States of the West must support Ukraine as strongly as the wave of russian aggression against Ukraine is.These were the words of Francesco Pesce, Charge d`Affaires of the Embassy of Italy to Ukraine, at the 10th Youth Kyiv Security Forum, organized bt the Arseniy Yatsenyuk “Open Ukraine” Foundation.“This current war is unprecedented in terms of its aggression unseen since World War II. We imposed sanctions, and as the war wages on, we take a lot of additional measures to support Ukraine. Aggression against Ukraine continues, and support must continue as well”, – Charge d’Affairs Pesce emphasized.He also argued that he takes pride in the work done by the G7 countries. The G7 sees Ukraine as their top priority today.“We are successfully interacting now with all G7 allies who are united in their support of Ukraine at the national leaders’ level, and at the ministerial level. Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, hosted G7 Ministers in Kyiv this February marking the second anniversary of the full-scale invasion and this serves yet another mighty signal of our support to Ukraine, – Charge d’Affairs added.Among positive outcomes of such work he mentioned Euro 50 billion windfall tax given to Ukraine from the frozen russian assets.Youth Kyiv Security Forum is the leading platform to engage young leaders into discussion of national security issues and international relations agenda. &nbsp;

States of the West must support Ukraine as strongly as the wave of russian aggression against Ukraine is.

Unprecedented aggression demands unprecedented support to backlash – Italian diplomat 

Ukraine’s NATO membership will mean that a long-lasting peace can be enjoyed by all Europe.This was the message of Danylo Lubkivsky, Director of the Kyiv Security Forum, at the 10th Youth Kyiv Security Forum.“We live under threat of a mortal danger. Ukraine is democracy that had to become militarized. Hence, a rather cumbersome notion has appeared – a militarized democracy. We must be democracy that has to defend itself,” - he stated.Director Lubkivsky also emphasized that our victory and our survival depend on our ability to defend ourselves.“There are two major issues here. Ukraine’s NATO membership means ending this war. And it is Ukraine’s NATO membership that will mean ascertaining the long-term peace in Europe, and returning to civilized rules of international co-existence,” – he argued.“Ukraine’s EU membership means our ability to become a successful, advanced, well-off, and free state,” – KSF Director underlined.“Since 2007, from the moment when the Kyiv Security Forum was founded by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the KSF Team remained one of the most devoted advocates of Ukraine’s NATO and the EU memberships. This is the dream we have, and it is to attain this dream that we hold these Forums,” - Danylo Lubkivsky summed up.Youth Kyiv Security Forum is the leading platform to attract young leaders to discuss issues of national security and international relations agenda. &nbsp;

Ukraine’s NATO membership will mean that a long-lasting peace can be enjoyed by all Europe.

Danylo Lubkivsky: Ukraine’s NATO membership will bring peace to Europe

Statements by President Trump, Kellogg and Putin: it seems that there are backroom negotiations going on, without Ukraine and with no clear goal or plan for the terms of ending the war and means of putting pressure on Russia.&nbsp;President Trump reiterated his stance on negotiating with Ukraine and Russia separately. There is no indication of a negotiating process where the United States and Ukraine, with the participation of the EU, develop a common plan. Also, there has been no clarification on the question about contacting Russia.&nbsp;The statement of Keith Kellogg, the US President's Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia (which should be interpreted correctly): that elections should be held not after ending the war, but rather now, particularly after a ceasefire is established, - is categorically unacceptable and resonates with Putin's statement about the alleged illegitimacy of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.&nbsp;Kellogg's references to holding elections during wartime have no significant historical precedent.Kellogg's visit to Ukraine has been postponed twice.&nbsp;The repercussions of those statements themselves are already creating tensions in the society and sending a signal of distrust of the Ukrainian government to both Ukrainian citizens and Ukraine’s allies.&nbsp;Putin with his statement demonstrates his unwillingness to end the war, suggests the presence of the forces within the Ukrainian parliament willing to surrender, and seeks to drag Ukraine into elections that would undermine the country’s unity and the spirit of the military command and the Armed Forces.&nbsp;At this stage, we estimate the risks of unacceptable conditions for the negotiation process at 7 out of 10, and the continuation of warfare in the next six months at 9 out of 10.

Trump confirmed his intention to negotiate separately, while Kellogg made an unacceptable proposal to hold elections immediately after a ceasefire is declared, undermining Zelensky's legitimacy.

Backroom negotiations going on without Ukraine

US President Donald Trump's statement shook the whole world. The reconstruction of the Gaza Strip - practically seizing the territory where 2 million Palestinians live and resettling them - is a violation of all international law norms.We unequivocally support the State of Israel and believe that all terrorists like Hamas, Hezbollah, and other radicals who threaten the security of the State of Israel must be punished.The State of Israel was established through an international law (UN Security Council resolutions). That is why all actions of the State of Israel and its allies must be based on the remnants of international law.Prior to October 7, Putin cozied up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (and vice versa). But after Israel's operation in Gaza, he supported Hamas and hosted them in Moscow. And now, he has not said a single word in response to Trump's statement about the actual eviction of Palestinians and the seizure of territory, and has not joined the Arab states in condemning such a statement.Obviously, with his silence, Putin wants to send a signal to the US president. Putin wants to show his openness to negotiate on the issues of particular importance to Trump, while seeking a similar approach from the American president on the most difficult issue for himself - ending the war with Ukraine on the Kremlin's terms. And at the same time, to watch the growth of anti-American sentiment in the Arab world and secretly support it.

By keeping silent on Trump's statement about the actual seizure of Gaza, Putin is sending a signal of his negotiating ability and expects the US president to do the same in ending the war with Ukraine on the Kremlin's terms.