Statements by President Trump, Kellogg and Putin: it seems that there are backroom negotiations going on, without Ukraine and with no clear goal or plan for the terms of ending the war and means of putting pressure on Russia.
President Trump reiterated his stance on negotiating with Ukraine and Russia separately. There is no indication of a negotiating process where the United States and Ukraine, with the participation of the EU, develop a common plan. Also, there has been no clarification on the question about contacting Russia.
The statement of Keith Kellogg, the US President's Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia (which should be interpreted correctly): that elections should be held not after ending the war, but rather now, particularly after a ceasefire is established, - is categorically unacceptable and resonates with Putin's statement about the alleged illegitimacy of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Kellogg's references to holding elections during wartime have no significant historical precedent.
Kellogg's visit to Ukraine has been postponed twice.
The repercussions of those statements themselves are already creating tensions in the society and sending a signal of distrust of the Ukrainian government to both Ukrainian citizens and Ukraine’s allies.
Putin with his statement demonstrates his unwillingness to end the war, suggests the presence of the forces within the Ukrainian parliament willing to surrender, and seeks to drag Ukraine into elections that would undermine the country’s unity and the spirit of the military command and the Armed Forces.
At this stage, we estimate the risks of unacceptable conditions for the negotiation process at 7 out of 10, and the continuation of warfare in the next six months at 9 out of 10.