Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum, Prime Minister of Ukraine (2014–2016), is sceptical about the current diplomatic process surrounding russia's war against Ukraine and urges not to confuse the concepts. According to him, what is currently taking place can hardly be described as peace negotiations.

He made these remarks during the Kyiv Security Forum Special Session on the Global Situation and the Prospects for Peace in Ukraine "12 Years of Russia's War Against Ukraine: What Comes Next?"

The politician drew attention to the composition of the russian delegation and to moscow's rhetoric, noting that russia itself refers to this format as "consultations".

"What kind of peace negotiations can we be talking about if the russian side is represented by russia's main intelligence agency (GRU)? This is the first time I have heard of diplomatic negotiations being conducted by the military. Putin's tactic is obvious. He sent the GRU there with only one goal and one expectation that Ukraine would begin surrendering its territory," Yatsenyuk said.

At the same time, he believes that the Ukrainian authorities are doing the right thing by participating in this process, because the strategic goal remains unchanged – preserving the engagement of the U.S.

"The Ukrainian government is doing the right thing by participating in these talks, because we need to keep the Americans within our orbit," Yatsenyuk emphasised.

In his opinion, there are currently no grounds to believe that putin is ready to sign a genuine peace agreement. He described the continuation of the war as the most realistic scenario, while a temporary ceasefire remains possible, though less likely.

"A ceasefire and a peace agreement are two very different things. A ceasefire is only possible if russia realises that the cost of continuing the war has become personally unacceptable for putin," Arseniy Yatsenyuk noted.

According to him, such a scenario could emerge only as a result of a combination of factors: massive losses suffered by the russian army, a critical state of russia's economy, a continuous supply of weapons and finances to Ukraine, and strict enforcement of sanctions.

"If the West continues to supply weapons, provides Ukraine with financial support, imposes sanctions – and not just imposes them, but enforces those already in place – and deprives russia of resources, then this could lead putin to recognise that a temporary ceasefire is necessary," the politician concluded.

Open Ukraine is an international foundation established by Arseniy Yatsenyuk in July 2007 to strengthen Ukraine's authority in the world. The foundation organises the Kyiv Security Forum every year. This leading international discussion platform focuses on issues of war and peace. The foundation also organises the Youth Kyiv Security Forum to develop a new generation of Ukrainian leaders.